AMO is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, a roughly 65-year swing in North Atlantic sea temperatures whose warm phases bring more hurricanes. This tests whether its 60-year cycle prices coastal catastrophe risk eras. Tested at one and three months; 2 of 2 cleared the usual bar alone, none once the size of the search was counted.
Withdrawn on review. The only result in a 94-test batch to survive correction, but the ocean cycle it relies on turns over every ~65 years and the 340-month window covers 0.44 of one turn — roughly 25 independent observations, not 340.
AMO 60-year cycle prices coastal catastrophe risk eras
AMO has lag-1 autocorrelation 0.972, giving roughly 25 effective observations against a nominal 340, and the test window spans 0.44 of one ~65-year AMO cycle. The reported p of 0.0033 is exactly 1/304 — the smallest value the permutation test can return — because with under one full cycle every circular shift is near-degenerate and no valid null distribution exists. This was the screen's only FDR survivor.
| Horizon | n | β | HAC t | HAC p | Shift p (dir) | Shift p (2-sided) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12m | 340 | -0.0992 | -2.49 | 0.013 | 0.003 | 0.020 |
| 6m | 340 | -0.0496 | -2.41 | 0.016 | 0.019 | 0.053 |
| Symbol | Notes |
|---|---|
| RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. — listed on NYSE, in USD. | |
| Everest Group Ltd. — listed on NYSE, in USD. | |
| Chubb Limited — listed on NYSE, in USD. |
| Rev | Stage | Status | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Draft | — | Direction declared before testing |
| 02 | Screened | Survived | q = 0.085; the only survivor in a 94-test batch |
| 03 | Reviewed | Voided | The ocean cycle it relies on turns over every ~65 years; the test window covers less than half of one turn |