Crop-price momentum traded through ag-input equities

When crop prices have been rising, buy the companies that sell tractors and fertiliser, on the theory that farm income reaches them later. Mildly positive, and well within what chance produces.

Conclusion: Failed

Failed on the reward for the risk, the confidence range, profit concentration and standing out from the search. Indicative performance of 5.0% a year is 3.3 points above the 1.7% returned by holding the same universe continuously, return for risk taken sits at 0.34 against the benchmark's 0.13, and the worst fall of 46.6% is 50.4 points below the benchmark's 97.0%.

Figure 1 · Growth of $1

2000–2026 · net of 15bp round-trip costs
What one dollar became, after costs: $3.63 by 2026. Shown against Control, S&P 500, rebased to the same starting dollar.
Return for risk
0.34
range (0.10) to 0.75
Ann. return
5.0%
volatility 15.0%
Max drawdown
46.6%
over 308 months
Beats the search
3.8%
chance, after correction

Method

Hypothesis

Economic-links lead-lag: crop rallies raise farm income, which raises equipment and fertiliser demand with a lag that analysts covering the equipment makers are slow to price.

Rule

CROPS = [ZW=F ZC=F ZS=F]
EQUITIES = [DE AGCO ANDE MOS NTR CF GNC.AX ELD.AX
COROMANDEL.NS CHAMBLFERT.NS M&M.NS ESCORTS.NS]
LOOKBACK = 3 months
function positions(bar):
crop_run = sum(mean(returns(CROPS, LOOKBACK, ending bar)))
# rising crop prices lift farm income, and farm income reaches
# the equipment and fertiliser makers later
return sign(crop_run) * equal_risk(EQUITIES, bar)
# ── execution ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
COST_PER_TRADE = 15 bps of the notional that changes hands
function on_bar(bar, book):
if not bar.is_month_end:
return # decisions are made monthly only
target = positions(bar) # the rule above
target = scale_to_gross(target, 1.0)
rebalance(book, target, bar)
function scale_to_gross(w, limit):
gross = sum(abs(w)) # total capital at work
if gross == 0:
return w # flat is a valid target
return w * limit / gross # leverage fixed, never implicit
function rebalance(book, target, bar):
for symbol in union(book.symbols, target.symbols):
delta = target[symbol] - book.weight(symbol)
if delta > 0:
buy(symbol, delta, fill = next_bar.close)
else if delta < 0:
sell(symbol, -delta, fill = next_bar.close)
book.charge(COST_PER_TRADE * abs(delta))
# Orders are filled at the next month's close, never the one the decision
# was made on. There is no stop_loss(), take_profit(), limit order or
# position cap: a holding changes only when positions() returns a
# different target at the next month end.

Evaluation

Table 1 · Performance

2000-11 – 2026-06 · 308 months, 308 invested
MeasureValue
Annualised return5.0%
Annualised volatility15.0%
Return for risk taken0.34
95% range(0.10) to 0.75
t-statistic1.70
Maximum drawdown46.6%
Hit rate52.6%
Annual turnover6.77×
Return skew0.69
Return kurtosis5.39
The range is measured by resampling the history in blocks, so runs of good and bad months stay intact.

Table 2 · Robustness

DiagnosticValueReads asBadOkayYayHmm
Design half (pre-2015)0.49return for risk≤ 00 – 0.40≥ 0.40
Holdout half (2015+)0.09return for risk≤ 00 – 0.40≥ 0.40
Top-5-month share of profit58.2%how much rode on a few months — lower is better≥ 40%25 – 40%< 25%
Top-2-year share of profit85.4%concentration
Distinct trading episodes1how many independent runs this really is< 5050 – 100≥ 100
Chance the edge is real96.0%non-normality corrected
Chance it beats the whole search3.8%chance of beating the whole search by luck
bad/ok boundary is the pre-registered criterion · ok/good is a margin above it, not a criterion · blank where none was registered
The last row asks whether the result would stand out from the hundred-odd ideas tried here, rather than being judged alone.

Table 3 · Pre-registered criteria

measured against C4_EQ_LONG
1FAILED2FAILED3FAILED4PASS5PASS6FAILED
CheckWhat it asksResult
1Reward large enough for the riskFAIL
2Confidence range clear of zeroFAIL
3Profit not concentrated in a few monthsFAIL
4Worked in both halves of the historypass
5Beat buying and holdingpass
6Stood out from the whole searchFAIL
These six checks were written down before the strategy was run.

Table 4 · Net return by calendar year

after costs
+65%-65%
YearNet return
200012.7%
2001(14.7%)
2002(8.5%)
20036.2%
2004(12.6%)
2005(5.6%)
200616.5%
200744.9%
200865.2%
2009(1.5%)
201025.1%
2011(19.2%)
2012(8.7%)
20136.6%
201410.3%
2015(9.8%)
20169.8%
2017(11.2%)
20189.9%
20193.2%
202013.6%
20216.1%
20224.7%
202310.0%
2024(12.6%)
20250.3%
2026(11.9%)

Table 5 · Concentration detail

MeasureValue
Best years2008:+65%, 2007:+45%, 2010:+25%
Worst year2011:-19%

Reference

Instruments

last price and one-month change, live from Yahoo Finance
SymbolNotes
DEDeere & Company — listed on NYSE, in USD.
AGCOAGCO Corporation — listed on NYSE, in USD.
ANDEThe Andersons — listed on NasdaqGS, in USD.
MOSThe Mosaic Company — listed on NYSE, in USD.
NTRNutrien Ltd. — listed on NYSE, in USD.
CFCF Industries Holdings Inc. — listed on NYSE, in USD.
GNC.AXGrainCorp — listed on ASX, in AUD.
ELD.AXElders — listed on ASX, in AUD.
COROMANDEL.NSNot in the instrument table.
CHAMBLFERT.NSNot in the instrument table.
M&M.NSMahindra & Mahindra — listed on NSE, in INR.
ESCORTS.NSEscorts Kubota — listed on NSE, in INR.
ZW=FChicago SRW Wheat — continuous futures on CBOT, quoted in US cents.
ZC=FCorn — continuous futures on CBOT, quoted in US cents.
list truncated in the source record

Sample

2000-11 – 2026-06 · 308 months

Sources

NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. Climate indices. ONI, Niño 3.4, MEI v2, DMI, PDO, AMO, TNA, QBO, solar flux. psl.noaa.gov/data/climateindices/list
Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries. Southern Oscillation Index. The Long Paddock. Monthly, 1876–. www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/soi-data-files
Yahoo Finance. Historical market prices. Adjusted close, month-end. Retrieved with yfinance. finance.yahoo.com

Revision history

RevStageStatusChange
01DraftDirection and criteria fixed before the experiment ran
02TestedFailedFell short on the reward for the risk, the confidence range, profit concentration, standing out from the search; control C4_EQ_LONG