Cannot be evaluated on obtainable data. Requires individual contract-month futures price series.
Not tested. The data required does not exist in obtainable form, so no result is claimed in either direction.
New-crop vs old-crop calendar spreads absorb ENSO before flat price
A supply shock should move the December-versus-July wheat spread more cleanly than flat price, because it reprices the harvest that the weather actually affects. Measuring that needs per-contract series. Only spliced front-month continuous data is freely available, and this project's own data audit established that splicing introduces calendar-periodic artifacts — precisely the frequency at which this hypothesis would be tested.
Publishing this as a verdict rather than dropping it keeps the denominator honest: a hypothesis that was never tested must not be mistaken for one that failed.
| Field | Detail |
|---|---|
| Requires | Individual contract-month futures price series |
| Reason | A supply shock should move the December-versus-July wheat spread more cleanly than flat price, because it reprices the harvest that the weather actually affects. Measuring that needs per-contract series. Only spliced front-month continuous data is freely available, and this project's own data audit established that splicing introduces calendar-periodic artifacts — precisely the frequency at which this hypothesis would be tested. |
| Where it exists | Per-contract historical futures series are distributed by Stevens Analytics, CSI and the exchanges directly. Availability and terms not assessed here. |
| Rev | Stage | Status | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Draft | — | Direction and criteria fixed before the experiment ran |
| 02 | Assessed | Disqualified | Required data is not obtainable; recorded rather than dropped |