IOD innovation sizing a grain-futures L/S basket

Over 25 years it returned about 3% a year. The plausible range of outcomes still includes doing nothing at all.

Conclusion: Failed

Failed: the 95% range spans zero and 107.0% of profit arrived in five months. Indicative performance of 3.1% a year at 22.0% volatility, return for risk taken 0.14 (95% range (0.20) to 0.48).

Figure 1 · Growth of $1

2001–2026 · net of 15bp round-trip costs
What one dollar became, after costs: $2.18 by 2026. Shown against S&P 500, rebased to the same starting dollar.
Return for risk
0.14
range (0.20) to 0.48
Ann. return
3.1%
volatility 22.0%
Max drawdown
70.0%
over 302 months
Beats the search
0.4%
chance, after correction

Method

Hypothesis

Best-motivated lead from the deep study: IOD correlates only -0.31 with SOI, is far less watched, and drives Australian and East African rainfall directly.

Rule

UNIVERSE = [ZW=F ZC=F ZS=F ZM=F ZR=F KE=F]
function positions(bar):
z = zscore(feature(dmi_shock), expanding)
size = clip(z / 2, -1, 1) # full size at a two-sigma reading
for symbol in UNIVERSE:
w[symbol] = declared_sign(symbol) / vol_36m(symbol, bar.prev)
return w * size
# ── execution ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
COST_PER_TRADE = 15 bps of the notional that changes hands
function on_bar(bar, book):
if not bar.is_month_end:
return # decisions are made monthly only
target = positions(bar) # the rule above
target = scale_to_gross(target, 1.0)
rebalance(book, target, bar)
function scale_to_gross(w, limit):
gross = sum(abs(w)) # total capital at work
if gross == 0:
return w # flat is a valid target
return w * limit / gross # leverage fixed, never implicit
function rebalance(book, target, bar):
for symbol in union(book.symbols, target.symbols):
delta = target[symbol] - book.weight(symbol)
if delta > 0:
buy(symbol, delta, fill = next_bar.close)
else if delta < 0:
sell(symbol, -delta, fill = next_bar.close)
book.charge(COST_PER_TRADE * abs(delta))
# Orders are filled at the next month's close, never the one the decision
# was made on. There is no stop_loss(), take_profit(), limit order or
# position cap: a holding changes only when positions() returns a
# different target at the next month end.

Evaluation

Table 1 · Performance

2001-05 – 2026-06 · 302 months, 302 invested
MeasureValue
Annualised return3.1%
Annualised volatility22.0%
Return for risk taken0.14
95% range(0.20) to 0.48
t-statistic0.71
Maximum drawdown70.0%
Hit rate54.0%
Annual turnover11.24×
Return skew(0.16)
Return kurtosis3.92
The range is measured by resampling the history in blocks, so runs of good and bad months stay intact.

Table 2 · Robustness

DiagnosticValueReads asBadOkayYayHmm
Design half (pre-2015)0.11return for risk≤ 00 – 0.40≥ 0.40
Holdout half (2015+)0.20return for risk≤ 00 – 0.40≥ 0.40
Top-5-month share of profit107.0%how much rode on a few months — lower is better≥ 40%25 – 40%< 25%
Top-2-year share of profit80.6%concentration
Distinct trading episodes1how many independent runs this really is< 5050 – 100≥ 100
Chance the edge is real75.9%non-normality corrected
Chance it beats the whole search0.4%chance of beating the whole search by luck
bad/ok boundary is the pre-registered criterion · ok/good is a margin above it, not a criterion · blank where none was registered
The last row asks whether the result would stand out from the hundred-odd ideas tried here, rather than being judged alone.

Table 3 · Net return by calendar year

after costs
20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026+42%-42%
YearNet return
2001(24.1%)
2002(3.8%)
2003(11.2%)
2004(15.9%)
200527.7%
200630.4%
200714.3%
200812.0%
20091.4%
2010(42.2%)
20119.4%
201221.1%
201310.2%
201410.7%
2015(13.1%)
201629.1%
2017(2.9%)
2018(14.6%)
2019(0.6%)
2020(27.5%)
202119.1%
202214.6%
2023(9.7%)
202432.4%
2025(6.8%)
202617.8%

Table 4 · Concentration detail

MeasureValue
Best years2024:+32%, 2006:+30%, 2016:+29%
Worst year2010:-42%

Reference

Instruments

last price and one-month change, live from Yahoo Finance
SymbolNotes
ZW=FChicago SRW Wheat — continuous futures on CBOT, quoted in US cents.
ZC=FCorn — continuous futures on CBOT, quoted in US cents.
ZS=FSoybeans — continuous futures on CBOT, quoted in US cents.
ZM=FSoybean Meal — continuous futures on CBOT, in USD.
ZR=FRough Rice — continuous futures on CBOT, in USD.
KE=FKC HRW Wheat — continuous futures on CBOT, quoted in US cents.

Sample

2001-05 – 2026-06 · 302 months

Sources

NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. Climate indices. ONI, Niño 3.4, MEI v2, DMI, PDO, AMO, TNA, QBO, solar flux. psl.noaa.gov/data/climateindices/list
Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries. Southern Oscillation Index. The Long Paddock. Monthly, 1876–. www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/soi-data-files
Yahoo Finance. Historical market prices. Adjusted close, month-end. Retrieved with yfinance. finance.yahoo.com

Revision history

RevStageStatusChange
01DraftDirection and criteria fixed before the experiment ran
02TestedFailedBenchmark, not scored against the criteria